Will the Republican Party split by 2012? How will the division between the moderates and radicals play out?
The Republican Party is divided between those who want to moderate and those who want to look even farther to the right. Will the party move to the right and lose moderates or will it eventually look to the left and try to win non Republicans?
The Republican Party needs to reach out to minorities because of the demographic reality. To do that, though, it must support some sort of immigration amnesty, but that will cost them heavily in some states. It could change its tune on gay rights (25% of gays voted for Bush), but that will threaten its religious constituency. It could change its tune on social programs, but that would threaten its core constituency.
My guess is that the Republican Party will cobble together a coalition in the hope that Obama does so poorly they won’t have to address their core issues right away. Then, with their conservative base literally dying off (the average age of those who listen to talk radio is 67), it will be easier for them to move left, and become libertarian on social issues and conservative on economic issues. The far right will become increasingly irrelevant, just as the far left has become irrelevant in the Democratic Party.
Tea Party and GOP Messages Converge at CPAC
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